This week brings a cluster of economic events that could steer global markets and shape central bank decisions. We will watch:
FOMC minutes for clues on September cuts
Flash PMIs in the U.S. and Eurozone for growth signals
Japan’s inflation print as the BoJ edges away from ultra-loose policy
And of course, Jackson Hole, where Powell’s speech may frame the Fed’s next steps
Here’s what matters — and why.
FOMC Minutes (Aug 20)
What’s at stake: Investors expect the Fed to begin cutting in September. The July minutes will reveal how close that decision is.
Why it matters: If the Fed showed deep concern over cooling labor markets, expectations for cuts could firm.
Market impact: Dovish tone → weaker USD, stronger equities. Hawkish tone → higher yields, more volatility.
Flash PMIs (Aug 21)
U.S. Manufacturing & Services: Forecasts point to mild expansion. A move above 50 in manufacturing would signal resilience.
Eurozone Services PMI: Markets will look for signs the slowdown is easing.
Why it matters: PMI surveys are early growth signals. Stronger readings ease recession fears; weaker ones could fuel safe-haven demand for Treasuries and gold.
Housing Data (Aug 21–22)
Existing & New Home Sales: Housing remains a key channel for policy transmission.
Why it matters: Soft numbers would reinforce the case for rate cuts and weigh on housing-linked equities.
(Deeper sectoral implications in the subscriber note.)
Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 21–23)
Theme: “Labor Markets in Transition.”
Powell’s Speech (Aug 22): Markets will parse every word for signals on rate cuts.
Why it matters: Jackson Hole has a history of policy signals — Bernanke in 2010, Draghi in 2014, Powell in 2020. Expect volatility across bonds, FX, and equities.
Japan CPI (Aug 22)
Forecast: 2.7% YoY, slightly above June’s 2.6%.
Why it matters: The BoJ has been cautiously exiting ultra-loose policy. A stronger print could reinforce the yen and shake up global carry trades.
What It Means for Markets
Equities: Could rally on dovish Fed/Jackson Hole tone, but weak PMIs would weigh.
FX: Dollar likely softer if Powell signals cuts; EM currencies could benefit.
Bonds: Treasury yields hinge on FOMC minutes + Powell; big swings possible.
Why It Matters Now
2025 has already been a year of geopolitical shocks and policy pivots. This week’s data and Jackson Hole speeches will set the tone for Q4 — either confirming a “soft landing” or exposing cracks in the global outlook.
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